IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.9	#232
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.9	#307
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#225

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.3	#240

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.7%	6.8%	2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.6	15.2

.500 or above	42.1%	49.7%	24.4%
.500 or above in Conference	48.5%	53.4%	37.0%
Conference Champion	6.1%	7.3%	3.2%
Last Place in Conference	10.3%	8.1%	15.3%

First Four	0.8%	0.9%	0.7%
First Round	5.2%	6.4%	2.6%
Second Round	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 11
Quad 4	11 - 5	14 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2019	276	Charlotte	W	67-62	70%
Nov 10, 2019	10	@ Virginia	L	48-72	1%
Nov 16, 2019	151	@ George Mason	L	65-73	25%
Nov 20, 2019	139	@ Old Dominion	L	58-66	24%
Nov 23, 2019	334	New Hampshire	W	69-58	83%
Nov 26, 2019	348	Coppin St.	W	77-64	88%
Nov 30, 2019	203	East Carolina	W	71-69	56%
Dec 04, 2019	134	@ Radford	L	62-71	22%
Dec 16, 2019	194	Charleston Southern	W	70-69	54%
Dec 20, 2019	233	@ Fordham	L	62-65	40%
Dec 28, 2019	148	Hofstra	L	71-73	44%
Dec 30, 2019	130	Northeastern	L	67-70	40%
Jan 02, 2020	268	@ UNC Wilmington	L	74-75	47%
Jan 04, 2020	123	@ College of Charleston	L	63-73	20%
Jan 09, 2020	240	Delaware	W	67-64	62%
Jan 11, 2020	254	Drexel	W	75-71	64%
Jan 18, 2020	181	@ Towson	L	63-68	33%
Jan 23, 2020	246	@ William & Mary	L	71-73	43%
Jan 25, 2020	317	@ Elon	W	72-69	60%
Jan 30, 2020	123	College of Charleston	L	66-70	38%
Feb 01, 2020	268	UNC Wilmington	W	77-72	66%
Feb 06, 2020	254	@ Drexel	L	72-74	45%
Feb 08, 2020	240	@ Delaware	L	64-67	42%
Feb 15, 2020	181	Towson	W	66-65	52%
Feb 20, 2020	317	Elon	W	75-66	76%
Feb 22, 2020	246	William & Mary	W	74-70	62%
Feb 27, 2020	130	@ Northeastern	L	64-73	24%
Feb 29, 2020	148	@ Hofstra	L	68-76	26%
Projected Record						13 - 15	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.3	1.2	1.7	1.4	0.9	0.4	0.1		6.1	1st
2nd											0.1	0.9	2.5	2.8	1.4	0.4	0.0				8.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.9	3.7	3.3	1.1	0.1	0.0					10.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.6	4.8	3.3	0.9	0.1							11.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.7	4.8	3.1	0.6	0.0								11.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.2	5.4	3.0	0.4	0.0									12.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.8	3.4	5.1	2.6	0.4	0.0										12.3	7th
8th				0.1	1.0	3.2	4.5	2.2	0.2	0.0											11.3	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.4	3.3	3.1	1.2	0.2	0.0												9.6	9th
10th	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.9	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0													6.3	10th

Total	0.2	0.8	1.8	3.4	5.9	7.7	9.7	10.9	11.2	11.0	10.3	8.5	7.1	5.1	3.3	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.1			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	95.3%	0.9		0.8	0.1
15-3	77.6%	1.4		1.0	0.3	0.0
14-4	52.0%	1.7		0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	23.2%	1.2		0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.9%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.1%	6.1		3.6	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		47.3%	47.3%		11.4							0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
17-1	0.4%		42.1%	36.1%	6.0%	13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.2		9.4%
16-2	0.9%		41.8%	41.7%	0.1%	13.1											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5		0.2%
15-3	1.8%		27.9%	27.9%		13.5													0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.3
14-4	3.3%		23.8%	23.8%		14.1													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	2.5
13-5	5.1%		18.1%	18.1%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	4.2
12-6	7.1%		9.7%	9.7%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	6.4
11-7	8.5%		8.6%	8.6%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	7.8
10-8	10.3%		5.9%	5.9%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	9.7
9-9	11.0%		3.4%	3.4%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.3	10.6
8-10	11.2%		2.2%	2.2%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	11.0
7-11	10.9%		1.1%	1.1%		15.8																0.0	0.1	10.8
6-12	9.7%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	9.6
5-13	7.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
4-14	5.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
3-15	3.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
2-16	1.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.7%	5.6%	0.0%	14.6							0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.7	1.7	94.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%